Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 4:14:36 GMT -5
By the end of 2021, the value of global trade is expected to reach $28 trillion, an increase of 23% compared to 2020, but the outlook for 2022 remains highly uncertain, the UN said last Tuesday.
This strong growth in demand (especially for goods) is largely the result of the easing of restrictions imposed by the pandemic, but also economic stimulus packages and sharp increases in the price of raw materials.
According to the United Nations Trade and Development agency, UNCTAD, global trade stabilized during the second half of 2021, with merchandise trade reaching record levels between July and September.
In line with this overall increase, the services sector also rebounded, but has remained below 2019 levels.
From a regional perspective, trade growth remained uneven during the first half of the year, but was broader in scope in the following three months.
Furthermore, trade flows Ecuador Mobile Number List continued to increase more strongly in developing countries compared to developed economies in the third quarter of the year.
According to UN data, global trade in goods is valued at $5.6 trillion in the third quarter of this year, marking a new all-time high, while services stood at around $1.5 trillion. .
For the rest of this year, UNCTAD has forecast slower growth in trade in goods, but a more positive trend for services.
Among the factors contributing to uncertainty about next year, UNCTAD cited the fact that China will grow below what was initially expected in the third quarter of 2021, as well as inflationary pressures and the measures that countries can take to address them. . Likewise, the UN body also notes that many economies, including those in the European Union, continue to face disruptions related to COVID-19, which may affect consumer demand in 2022.
On the other hand, within 2021, in addition to the large and unpredictable fluctuations in demand, high fuel prices have also caused transportation costs to skyrocket and contributed to supply shortages, leading to delays in the main chains. of supply that could continue next year and even reconfigure global trade flows, says UNCTAD.
Looking ahead, geopolitical factors also increase uncertainty for 2022, as regional trade within Africa and in the Asia-Pacific area increases, on the one hand, diverting trade from routes to Europe and the US.
Similarly, efforts to achieve a more socially and environmentally sustainable economy can also affect international trade by discouraging high-carbon products.
The need to protect countries' own strategic interests and weaknesses in specific sectors could also influence trade in 2022, UNCTAD said, amid a semiconductor shortage that has already disrupted many industries, especially the automotive sector.